Put Our Safety First

Posted on February 21, 2018 by D. Posnett MD
Tuesday Feb 20th, 3 PM:  Rally in Patchogue at  Lee Zeldin’s Patchogue Office
Put Our Safety First – Protect the Russia Investigation/ Gun Reform Now!
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Zeldin’s voting record on guns:

“Mr. Zeldin has accepted $14,850 from the NRA since his first congressional run, the most of any sitting NY representative, and has earned NRA’s  A rating” –Editorial, East Hampton Star, 10/05/17

  • Co-sponsored Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act, which compels states with strict concealed carry requirements to allow individuals from states with no or lax permit requirements to carry a concealed weapon. (H.R. 38) Opposed by police commissioners and District Attorneys across the country. (12/6/2017)
  • Voted in favor of H.R. 3354, which among other harmful provisions prohibits federal funding of CDC research on gun violence. (9/14/17)
  • Voted to end federal checks that prevented 167,000+ veterans deemed “mentally incompetent” from owning or buying firearms. H.R.1181 (3/16/2017)
  • Voted to prohibit bans of firearms in airports and other public transportation facilities. Griffith Amendment to H.R.2406 (2/26/2016)
  • Voted to restrict the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms from regulating the sale of ammunition for semi-automatic weapons. H.R.2578 (6/1/2015)
The rally in Patchogue at  Lee Zeldin’s Patchogue Office was attended by 400-500 people, with Newsday and other press outlets present.  Here are some pictures. Videos on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/dposnett/videos/10213198645013157/
https://www.facebook.com/cindy.morrisproothi/videos/pcb.1848659871864496/1848656928531457/?type=3&theater

 

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shame
big voice in a tiny body: go girl: go girl!

 

 

 

 

the victims
blood everywhere

IMG_7233  a52cb05c-a988-4f6f-8de4-792d9ef6fdfd

Posted in Guns, Russian connection, Trump, Uncategorized, veterans, Zeldin | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Zeldin Kissing the Ring of Sheldon Adelson

Posted on February 14, 2018 by D. Posnett MD

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Casino mogul Sheldon Adelson, a famously private figure, has given few hints about his plans for the midterms. | Anthony Wallace/AFP/Getty Images

 

From Perry Gershon:

I saw this over the weekend in Politico:

And then I read the first sentence and felt sick to my stomach:

“Republicans made their annual sojourn to the lavish Venetian hotel here in Las Vegas this weekend to kiss the ring of a benefactor they need more than ever: casino mogul Sheldon Adelson.”

Guess who was right there with them, hoping for a little dirty Vegas money? Congressman Lee Zeldin.

No wonder America and Long Island are so energized to take our country back.

I want to put everyday Americans and the middle class first. Fight for affordable, truly universal health care (Medicare for all). Protect the environment and fight climate change. Create family wage jobs. Ensure equal rights for allAmericans. And end the racism, sexism, and xenophobia coming out of Washington.

Sound better than the current bull being shoveled by Zeldin and Donald Trump?

Posted in GOP, Trump, Uncategorized, Zeldin | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

In the Crosshairs

Posted on February 9, 2018 by cdsprings

Published as Letter to the Editor in Feb. 8 edition of The East Hampton Star

His Responsibility

East Hampton

February 5, 2018

Dear David,

Comey, McCabe, Mueller — three lifelong Republicans whom President Trump often praised until doing their jobs put them in his crosshairs. Only one is left.

Robert Mueller’s investigation must continue. If it does not, we are no better than the dictatorships we used to hold in contempt, before we elected a president who is enamored with autocratic leaders.

Lee Zeldin could be a voice of reason and call for Mr. Mueller to be able to do his job unimpeded. But on this matter he is silent, ignoring his responsibility to his constituents and this country. Remember that in November.

Sincerely,

CAROL DEISTLER

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

New Registrations Favor Dems in CD-1

Posted on February 8, 2018 by D. Posnett MD

voter+registration17

Released by the Suffolk County Board of Elections: new registrants for the last month by party and by political subdivision. This is a measure of how well we are doing with efforts to register voters. (Table I)

Total Dem (%) Rep (%) Blank (%) other (%) diff D/R (%)
Babylon 320 39.7 15.9 35.6 8.8 23.8
Brookhaven 537 38.5 18.1 36.5 6.9 20.5
East Hampton 41 51.2 9.8 34.1 4.9 41.5
Huntington 321 34.6 23.4 33.6 8.4 11.2
Islip 338 38.2 17.8 37.6 6.5 20.4
Riverhead 32 31.3 25.0 40.6 3.1 6.3
Shelter Island 9 66.7 0.0 22.2 11.1 66.7
Smithtown 163 27.6 31.3 31.9 9.2 -3.7
Southampton 100 50.0 16.0 30.0 4.0 34.0
Southold 23 30.4 34.8 30.4 4.3 -4.3
Total 1884 37.8 19.6 35.2 7.3 18.2
CD-1 866 38.7 19.3 35.5 6.6 19.4
CD-2 640 39.1 16.9 36.3 7.8 22.2
CD-3 378 33.9 25.1 32.8 8.2 8.7

Ofcourse new registrations over the last month are a drop in the bucket, but it seems these drops are of different sizes. The percentage of new registrations/total numbers of registered voters is captured here. Note that Shelter Island, Southampton, Babylon and East Hampton, did best in terms of adding new voters (Table II)

total new total % new
registrations registrations registrations
Babylon 320 129889 0.25
Brookhaven 537 308719 0.17
East Hampton 41 16956 0.24
Huntington 321 141901 0.23
Islip 338 199128 0.17
Riverhead 32 21884 0.15
Shelter Island 9 2391 0.38
Smithtown 163 84877 0.19
Southampton 100 38998 0.26
Southold 23 16666 0.14
Total 1884 961409 0.20
CD-1 866 472989 0.18
CD-2 640 320104 0.20
CD-3 378 168316 0.22

 

Original data from the Suffolk County Board of Elections:

Screen Shot 2018-02-08 at 1.40.52 PM

 

Posted in democrats, GOP, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

New Registrations favor Dems in CD-1

Posted on February 8, 2018 by D. Posnett MD

voter+registration17

Released by the Suffolk County Board of Elections: new registrants for the last month by party and by political subdivision. This is a measure of how well we are doing with efforts to register voters.

Total Dem (%) Rep (%) Blank (%) other (%) Total (%) diff D%-R%
Babylon 320 39.7 15.9 35.6 8.8 100 23.8
Brookhaven 537 38.5 18.1 36.5 6.9 100 20.5
East Hampton 41 51.2 9.8 34.1 4.9 100 41.5
Huntington 321 34.6 23.4 33.6 8.4 100 11.2
Islip 338 38.2 17.8 37.6 6.5 100 20.4
Riverhead 32 31.3 25.0 40.6 3.1 100 6.3
Shelter Island 9 66.7 0.0 22.2 11.1 100 66.7
Smithtown 163 27.6 31.3 31.9 9.2 100 -3.7
Southampton 100 50.0 16.0 30.0 4.0 100 34.0
Southold 23 30.4 34.8 30.4 4.3 100 -4.3
Total 1884 37.8 19.6 35.2 7.3 100 18.2
CD-1 866 38.7 19.3 35.5 6.6 100 19.4
CD-2 640 39.1 16.9 36.3 7.8 100 22.2
CD-3 378 33.9 25.1 32.8 8.2 100 8.7

Other than in Smithtown and Southold, new registrants most frequently chose the Dem. Party.  For the 866 new voters in CD-1, 38.7% chose the Dem party, 19.3% chose the Rep. party and 35.5% chose no party.

Screen Shot 2018-02-08 at 1.40.52 PM

 

Ofcourse new registrations over the last month are a drop in the bucket, but it seems these drops are of different sizes.  The percentage of new registrations/total numbers of registered voters is captured here.  Note that Shelter Island, Southampton, Babylon and East Hampton, did best in terms of adding new voters.

total new total % new/total
registrations registrations registrations
Babylon 320 129889 0.25
Brookhaven 537 308719 0.17
East Hampton 41 16956 0.24
Huntington 321 141901 0.23
Islip 338 199128 0.17
Riverhead 32 21884 0.15
Shelter Island 9 2391 0.38
Smithtown 163 84877 0.19
Southampton 100 38998 0.26
Southold 23 16666 0.14
Total 1884 961409 0.20
CD-1 866 472989 0.18
CD-2 640 320104 0.20
CD-3 378 168316 0.22
Posted in democrats, GOP, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Zeldin: Selective Civil Rights

Posted on February 7, 2018 by D. Posnett MD

soldiers-at-civil-rights-protest-517322898-59a89d16d088c000106195e3

Michael Anthony writes on FB:  Lee Zeldin, the absentee Congressman, is concerned about Russian spy target Carter Page’s civil rights, but refuses to see the civil rights violations inherent in The Dept of Homeland Security’s administrative warrants used to detain and deport undocumented immigrants. ACLU says they violate 4th amendment as administrative warrants don’t possess same legal heft as judicial warrants. Come on, Lee, burnish your civil liberty credentials over a real issue.

Added by David P:

The Fifth Amendment to the United States Constitution provides:

No person shall … be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law …[6]

Section One of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution provides:

[N]or shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law …[7]

The Fourth Amendment protects people from unreasonable searches and seizures. The Fourth Amendment provides that no warrant can be issued if there is no probable cause to conduct search or seizure. Administrative inspections are also protected by the Fourth Amendment. However, administrative agency searches do not strictly adhere to the Fourth Amendment and the requirement of probable cause.

The due process clauses apply to both natural personas as well as to “legal persons” (that is, corporate personhood) as well as to individuals, including both citizens and non-citizens. The Fifth Amendment due process was first applied to corporations in 1893….The due process clauses also apply to non-citizens who are within the United States, although the U.S. Supreme Court has recognized that non-citizens can be stopped, detained, and denied past immigration officials at points of entry (e.g. at a port or airport) without the protection of the Due Process Clause because, while technically on U.S. soil, they are not considered to have entered the United States.[15][16]

Sources:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Due_Process_Clause

https://administrativelaw.uslegal.com/administrative-agency-investigations/searches-and-seizures/

  • Plyler v. Doe, 457 U.S. 202, 210 (1982) (“Appellants argue at the outset that undocumented aliens, because of their immigration status, are not ‘persons within the jurisdiction’ of the State of Texas, and that they, therefore, have no right to the equal protection of Texas law. We reject this argument. Whatever his status under the immigration laws, an alien is surely a ‘person’ in any ordinary sense of that term. Aliens, even aliens whose presence in this country is unlawful, have long been recognized as ‘persons’ guaranteed due process of law by the Fifth and Fourteenth Amendments.”).
  • Zadvydas v. Davis, 533 U.S. 678, 693 (2001) (“Although Mezei, like the present cases, involves indefinite detention, it differs from the present cases in a critical respect. As the Court emphasized, the alien’s extended departure from the United States required him to seek entry into this country once again. His presence on Ellis Island did not count as an entry into the United States. Hence, he was ‘treated,’ for constitutional purposes, ‘as if stopped at the border.’ … And that made all the difference. It is well established that certain constitutional protections available to persons inside the United States are unavailable to aliens outside of our geographic borders. … But once an alien enters the country, the legal circumstance changes, for the Due Process Clause applies to all ‘persons’ within the United States, including aliens, whether their presence here is lawful, unlawful, temporary, or permanent.”).

 

 

 

Posted in Civil Rights, immigration/deportation, Trump, Uncategorized, Zeldin | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Dreamer Rally at Zeldin’s office

Posted on February 7, 2018 by D. Posnett MD

About 100 people rallied in front of Zeldin’s office in Patchogue in support of Dreamers and a clean DACA bill on Feb 6.  The rally was organized by Bend The Arc and co-sponsored by many local groups including R&R. Six Dem. candidates vying to run against Lee Zeldin were all present at the rally in support of the Dreamers and the activists (see pictures below).

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Unknown-10

Unknown-11Brendon Henry on the left (candidate)

Unknown-5Kate Browning (candidate)

Unknown-4Perry Gershon wearing the blue baseball cap (candidate)

Unknown-3David Pechefsky (candidate)

Unknown-1Vivian Viloria Fisher (candidate)

Also present was Bruce Miller (candidate) – no photo taken.

Check out the video on Facebook !

And these videos too:

https://longislandwins.com/news/video-advocates-rally-dreamers-congressman-zeldins-office/

 

 

Posted in immigration/deportation, Trump, Uncategorized, Zeldin | Tagged , , , | 6 Comments

Strongman Trump

Posted on February 5, 2018 by D. Posnett MD

GADDAFI1

Webster: “Strongman: a person who uses power or authority in a cruel, unjust, or harmful way”

On Sep. 6, 2017, the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, was rescinded by Pres. Donald Trump. Congress was given 6 months to fix DACA. Now Trump is asking for measures to curtail legal immigration, specially from countries where the population is not white and for funding for his wall, in exchange for a DACA fix.

At the top of his demands are 2 euphemisms: “the lottery” and “chain migration”.

“The Lottery” (the green-card lottery) issues up to 50,000 visas a year to people from dozens of countries: 5% of the roughly 1 million green cards issued annually. The aim is to mix up the nation’s melting pot. The 95% other green cards are given out based on an employer or a family sponsor. There is a long and tedious background check system in place for all green card applicants.

US immigration quotas have been around for over 100 years and we need not be proud of this.   The Immigration Act of 1924 limited the number of immigrants allowed entry into the USA through an origins quota. It completely excluded immigrants from Asia.

Even when you have your green card, there is another long waiting period for naturalization. I waited 26 years while working as a doctor in the US for naturalization.

In the context of Trump’s ‘shithole countries’ comment, one has to interpret his rescinding of “the lottery” system as an attempt to favor white versus non-white immigration, a blatant racial move applauded by the likes of David Duke and documented by his tweet that “Americans are Dreamers too”.  Lee Zeldin approves!

“Chain Migration” – U.S. citizens and green card holders can petition for a spouse and unmarried children to join them in the USA.   But no one can petition for an aunt, uncle, cousin, niece, nephew, in-law relative or grandparent, according to USCIS. There is a long queue for certain relatives seeking to come through family sponsorship. For brothers and sisters of U.S. citizens, the average waiting period for a visa is over 13 years.

The term ‘chain migration’ is used in the history books to describe the phenomenon of one family migrating to a new country (usually because of persecution or economic disaster), and then, when they find the new location to be safe and conducive to prosperity, they signal their extended family, or even their entire community, to join them. All immigrants to the US have followed this pattern, the Italians, the Irish, the Germans, including the Trump family!

So why all the hoopla? Because Trump wants to stir up emotion among his base. To this end he uses stories of individuals who entered this country via the lottery program and that committed atrocities, like the Uzbek terrorist’s attack in Lower Manhattan on Oct. 31, 2017.

This brings me back to DACA. Just like rescinding the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), rescinding DACA is quite unpopular, regardless of your politics. In the case of CHIP, the democrats prevailed and the program was saved. In both cases, Trump is/was trying to hold Democrats hostage: either you vote for funds for my wall, and my changes to legal immigration or you lose DACA.  And for good measure Republicans (and that includes FOX news of course) will tar Dems with the responsibility of having doomed DACA!

Yes, these are strongman tactics and they are “cruel, unjust, and harmful”.

Zeldin has this to say: “My priority will always unapologetically remain with fighting for the people following the laws, rather than the ones breaking them.”

Uhm? A 5 year old child brought to this country (and now many years later a DACA recipient) was breaking the law?  What does Zeldin expect? Is the 5 year old from Ecuador supposed to tell his/her parents “I am not going with you because you are breaking the US laws”.   I say “Lee Zeldin, take a moment and think about your own kids.”  This is a tragedy and we, as a nation, are complicit: these families were not prevented from coming and this has been occuring over many years and many administrations both Republican and Democratic. For 8 years that Obama was president the Republicans fought tooth and nail to prevent comprehensive immigration reform. Now they have inherited the mess.  And their proposed solution:  strongman tactics that  are “cruel, unjust, and harmful”.

 

Sources:

Here’s what you need to know about the diversity visa lottery program

Jeff Sessions announces DACA program to be rescinded

How the United States Immigration System Works

Donald Trump’s misleading claim about chain migration, unlimited sponsorship of distant relatives

 

Posted in bigotry, DACA, immigration/deportation, Trump, Uncategorized, Zeldin | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

The Dark Side of SOTU

Posted on February 1, 2018 by D. Posnett MD

latest.png

Yoda, we need you!

So perhaps you think that President Trump’s State of the Union was ‘presidential’ and his speach reached across the isle?  If so, you would be joining a majority of viewers according to some polls.

But here is the dark side!

David Duke comments on the SOTU speach:

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And David Duke is not alone:

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) invited notorious right-wing internet troll and Holocaust denier Charles Johnson to be his guest at President Trump’s State of the Union speech on Tuesday night, according to a Daily Beast report.

Gaetz and Johnson gave conflicting accounts of how Johnson came to be Gaetz’s guest. The Florida congressman, who has played a leading role in pushing the conspiracy theory that the “deep state” is out to undermine Trump, said he doesn’t know Johnson. Gaetz said Johnson used one of his SOTU tickets only after his father fell ill and couldn’t go. But Johnson told the Daily Beast that he and Gaetz were introduced by another member of Congress, and that he “took Gaetz’s invitation” because “he’s into stuff on the issues that I care about.”

Johnson was permanently banned from Twitter after he posted a tweet in 2015 soliciting donations from people to “take out” activist DeRay McKesson, who at the time was in the news because of his support for Black Lives Matter.

On Reddit, Johnson once argued that the number of Jews in the Holocaust was much less than the accepted number of six million. He also questioned the existence of gas chambers, writing, “I agree with David Cole about Auschwitz and the gas chambers not being real. Why were their swimming pools there if it was a death camp?”

On GotNews, he’s referred to an alleged mob of Hispanic men protesting a Trump rally as “savages,”has repeatedly referred to Black Live Matter supporters as “thugs” and posted numerous stories alleging criminal acts by people he claims were affiliated with BLM. He’s also appeared on a podcast hosted by The Right Stuff, a proudly and profoundly anti-Semitic show hosted by white nationalist Mike Enoch.

It’s not surprising that Johnson’s fondness for conspiracy theories wouldn’t bother Gaetz. Earlier this week, Gaetz joined the show of America’s foremost conspiracy theorist, Alex Jones, to tout a conspiracy theory about purported “deep state” efforts to undermine President Trump.

Screen Shot 2018-02-01 at 1.30.08 PM.png

Are these your bed fellows Rep. Lee Zeldin?

 

Posted in bigotry, Congress, DACA, DOJ, Fake News, Religion & tolerance, Russian connection, Trump, Uncategorized, Zeldin | Tagged , | 1 Comment

The All-important Numbers for NY CD-1

Posted on January 30, 2018 by D. Posnett MD

Let’s look at the important numbers in NY CD-1.

Demographics:

Table I  (Source: Ballotpedia, based on 2010 census)

Population 720,071
Gender 49.6% Male, 50.4% Female
Race 87.7% White, 4.6% Black, 3.5% Asian
Ethnicity 12.8% Hispanic
Unemployment 6.60%
Median household income $83,144

Nearly 20% are minorities (Black, Asian, or Hispanic). Some Hispanics will call themselves “racially” white, but claim hispanic ethnicity.

Lesson: Don’t count on a huge minority vote because of disgust in Trump’s racial bigotry and Zeldin’s backing of Trump.

Party Affiliation:

Source: https://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/enrollment/congress/congress_nov12.pdf

Table II

raw numbers percentages
Dems 143,917 30.4
Reps 162,212 34.3
Cons 11,806 2.5
Ind 23,215 4.9
Blank 125,516 26.6
Other 5,985 1.3
Total 472,651 100

Assuming equal voter turn out for each party, and assuming that ‘Independants’, ‘Blanks’ and ‘Other’ break out 50/50 for the Dem versus Rep candidate, Dems can not win.

Assuming all Dems vote Dem and all Reps vote Rep, we still need about 30,000 votes from the Ind, Blanks, Other. And perhaps those 30,000 votes could include some from the Rep/Cons group.

Lesson: This has long been the main point of Tim Bishop whenever he speaks: Dems cannot win in CD-1 with out help from those registered in the red, purple or blank parties.

Voter Turnout

Many are quick to claim that we can win with a high Dem turn out. The so called blue wave expected for 2018. But let’s look seriously at the data. It is the data from prior elections. Ofcourse you can claim that in the Trump era nothing from the past applies. But this is all we have got. So lets look at it.

Table III  (Source: Ballotpedia )

Screen Shot 2018-01-30 at 1.06.40 AM.png

Column 1 lists the races going back to 2008.

Column 2 tallies the vote numbers for the Dem candidate

Column 3 tallies the vote numbers for the Rep candidate

Column 4 tallies the total votes cast (some voters did not vote for either R or D candidate): notice the much lower numbers for midterm elections in 2010 and 2014.

Column 5 lists the difference between the total votes for D and R candidates: notice the trend from positive numbers (Dem majority) to negative numbers (Rep majority). Our district is becoming more and more red.

Column 6 is the vote percentage of total registered voters that went to the Dem candidate*

Column 7 is the vote percentage of total registered voters that went to the Rep candidate*

* these numbers are calculated as the votes obtained by the Dem (or Rep) candidate per total number of registered voters. 472,651 is the current number of registered voters.  This does not equal the turnout within the Dem party or within the Rep party, because f.ex. an undetermined number of U (unaffiliated) would also have voted for either D or R candidate.

Note also the low numbers for the Dems in 2010 and 2014, suggesting that Dem voters did not vote (low turnout) in those years.

I have made some assumptions, see ‘Assumed 2018’, in Table III:

  • Dem vote numbers and Rep vote numbers might be similar to 2010
  • Dem turnout conservatively estimated to be similar to 2010 (historically this is a high turnout for a midterm election) – however if a country wide blue wave materializes the turn out could be even better
  • I assumed a similar turnout of Rep voters to prior midterm elections, for example 2010. BUT this would mean that roughly half of the voters that voted for Trump/Zeldin in 2016 fail to turn out and vote in 2018. That is probably wishful thinking. National polls suggest that Trumps base is holding stead fast with 35-40% of Americans approving Trump’s performance. I would expect that to be true in CD-1 too. See also Marc Rauch’s comment below.
  • It is clear from these data that LZ needs his Rep. base to turn out in 2018 and this explains his current turn to the far right, his support for Trumps immigration hawks, like Chief of Staff Kelly, and Stephen Miller in the White house, and his position attacking the FBI along with Devon Nunez etc.
  • Here is another scenario proposed by Marc Rauch:  The 2017 off-off-year elections saw a huge turnout (to some extent attributable to the Con/Con) just for a local election in an odd-numbered year. Democrats in Brookhaven Township rolled up impressive numbers (compared to 2015), but Republicans in Brookhaven Township rolled up even more impressive numbers (compared to 2015) and beat them solidly. This shows the Republican machine in Brookhaven Township is alive and well and this is where 63% of CD-1  voters are. So, 2018 may not be a sleepy off-year Congressional election. Republicans will fight tooth and nail and spend huge sums of money (remember why that tax bill had to pass) to keep control of both houses of Congress. Dems hopefully will fight just as hard or harder to grab the House or Senate and hopefully will be reasonably well-funded. An enormous amount of attention will be focused on the November elections nationally, and it will be more like a presidential election year than an off year in terms of turnout.  The bottom line is, assume high turnout for both Dems and Reps. The fight will be over who can get most of those in the middle to break their way. If this scenario proves correct, we will need 30,000 crossover votes as described above (see Table II).

Bottom line: this will not be a cakewalk.

Brookhaven

Posted in Brookhaven, Congress, GOP, long island, Politics, Trump, Uncategorized, Zeldin | Tagged , , , , | 9 Comments

Abortion vote in the Senate: Why?

Posted on January 29, 2018 by D. Posnett MD

First, let me reprint Perry Gershon’s post from his FB page (with permission):

Tomorrow the Senate will debate the so-called 20-week ban on abortion. Let’s be clear — this is nothing more than the first step towards making a woman’s right to choose illegal, altogether. Lee Zeldin was a co-sponsor of the bill in the House. Zeldin’s bill is just one more part of his dangerous agenda to outlaw a woman’s right to choose.

Here are the real facts — almost 99% of abortions occur in the first 20 weeks of pregnancy, and the 1% that don’t are in very complicated situations, such as risks to the woman’s health. We must protect a woman’s right to choose. It starts with opposing this dangerous ban and replacing Congressman Zeldin with someone who isn’t afraid to say so, loud and clear.

It’s time for those seeking to replace Congressman Zeldin, to draw a line in the sand and oppose this dangerous attack on women’s health care and a woman’s right to choose.

It’s time for bold action, loud and proud.

Screen Shot 2018-01-29 at 9.30.30 AM.png

Why are they doing this now?  Three words: For The Base.  Check this out:

https://thinkprogress.org/gop-abortion-shutdown-dfd173817d47/

And perhaps they wish to bait Dems seeking office?

It is already practically impossible to get an elective abortion nowadays after 20 weeks of gestation.  Unless of course there is a danger to the mother’s life.  The proposed legislation still contains some wording about exceptions (see below), but doctor’s and patient’s options are limited.  Psychiatric reasons are now taken off the table!  SO, a suicidal patient would be left to commit suicide (rather than have an abortion that might help)?  Would that help save the life of the fetus? Generally suicide kills mother and fetus.

 

Here is the bill:

On House Bill HR 36


The bill provides exceptions for an abortion: (1) that is necessary to save the life of the pregnant woman, or (2) when the pregnancy is the result of rape or incest. A physician who performs or attempts to perform an abortion under an exception must comply with specified requirements. 

“(b) Requirements For Abortions.—

“(1) ASSESSMENT OF THE AGE OF THE UNBORN CHILD.—The physician performing or attempting the abortion shall first make a determination of the probable post-fertilization age of the unborn child or reasonably rely upon such a determination made by another physician. In making such a determination, the physician shall make such inquiries of the pregnant woman and perform or cause to be performed such medical examinations and tests as a reasonably prudent physician, knowledgeable about the case and the medical conditions involved, would consider necessary to make an accurate determination of post-fertilization age.

“(2) PROHIBITION ON PERFORMANCE OF CERTAIN ABORTIONS.—

“(A) GENERALLY FOR UNBORN CHILDREN 20 WEEKS OR OLDER.—Except as provided in subparagraph (B), the abortion shall not be performed or attempted, if the probable post-fertilization age, as determined under paragraph (1), of the unborn child is 20 weeks or greater.

“(B) EXCEPTIONS.—Subparagraph (A) does not apply if—

“(i) in reasonable medical judgment, the abortion is necessary to save the life of a pregnant woman whose life is endangered by a physical disorder, physical illness, or physical injury, including a life-endangering physical condition caused by or arising from the pregnancy itself, but not including psychological or emotional conditions;

“(ii) the pregnancy is the result of rape against an adult woman, and at least 48 hours prior to the abortion—

“(I) she has obtained counseling for the rape; or

“(II) she has obtained medical treatment for the rape or an injury related to the rape; or

“(iii) the pregnancy is a result of rape against a minor or incest against a minor, and the rape or incest has been reported at any time prior to the abortion to either—

“(I) a government agency legally authorized to act on reports of child abuse; or

“(II) a law enforcement agency.

And here is one of many scholarly papers on this issue: does abortion help avert psychiatric complications  (including suicide)?  As you can see it is complicated, and it is best left to the specialists (Obstetricians and Psychiatrists) and their patients, not to lawmakers, who have no clue!  Every case is likely to be different.

 

Termination of Pregnancy and Psychiatric Morbidity

Abstract

We investigated whether reported psychiatric morbidity was increased after termination of pregnancy compared with other outcomes of an unplanned pregnancy.

This was a prospective cohort study of 13 261 women with an unplanned pregnancy. Psychiatric morbidity reported by GPs after the conclusion of the pregnancy was compared in four groups: women who had a termination of pregnancy (6410), women who did not request a termination (6151), women who were refused a termination (379), and women who changed their minds before the termination was performed (321).

Rates of total reported psychiatric disorder were no higher after termination of pregnancy than after childbirth. Women with a previous history of psychiatric illness were most at risk of disorder after the end of their pregnancy, whatever its outcome. Women without a previous history of psychosis had an apparently lower risk of psychosis after termination than postpartum (relative risk RR = 0.4, 95% confidence interval CI = 0.3–0.7), but rates of psychosis leading to hospital admission were similar. In women with no previous history of psychiatric illness, deliberate self-harm (DSH) was more common in those who had a termination (RR 1.7, 95%CI 1.1–2.6), or who were refused a termination (RR 2.9, 95%CI 1.3–6.3).

The findings on DSH are probably explicable by confounding variables, such as adverse social factors, associated both with the request for termination and with subsequent self-harm. No overall increase in reported psychiatric morbidity was found.

Posted in Congress, Health Care, Planned Parenthood, Uncategorized, Women, Zeldin | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Zeldin’s (Dismal) Voting Record—At a Glance

Posted on January 28, 2018 by amyturner2000

ZeldinWatch logo

by A.Turner and J.Gavron

To defeat Zeldin, we need to understand his voting record and dispel the perception that he’s pro-environment and a moderate Republican. His record reveals his extremist views on issues such as gun ownership and women’s rights. Below is just a sampling of his votes. Other important issues will be covered in the next “LZ at a Glance.”

Environment

The misconception that Zeldin is an environmentalist stems from his votes on LOCAL issues. He’s voted to prevent Plum Island from being sold to the highest bidder and to safeguard the Long Island Sound. But his voting record on NATIONAL environmental issues makes it clear he is anti-regulation, particularly as regards environmental controls of the fossil fuel industry which he has lobbied against for decades.

For example, Zeldin voted to gut EPA funding and rescind regulations that protect our air, land and water, all of which endanger our local (NY01) environment, and earned him a League of Conservation Voters rating as among the worst environmental legislators for three consecutive years (2015-2017). Zeldin voted to:

  • Let coal mining companies dump toxic waste in streams H.J.Res.38 (2/1/2017)
  • Slash funding for key environmental programs and agencies, such as the
    EPA and the Land and Water Conservation fund H.R.3354 (9/14/2017)
  • Block the EPA and the Army Corps of Engineers’ Clean Water Rule, which protects the small streams and wetlands that feed into drinking water of 1 in 3 people, in the U.S Beyer Amendment to H.R.5538 (7/14/16)
  • End significant Clean Air Act health standards and allow corporations to pollute at unsafe levels H.R.4775 (6/8/16)

Lee Zeldin: Environmental Scorecard

Envrionmental record

Climate Change

Zeldin pays lip service to global warming. He voted against bills to address it 88.2% of the time; claims he’s an environmentalist based on his membership on the Bipartisan Climate Caucus BUT FAILED to support the Republican Climate Resolution (H.Res.195), which calls for government action on climate change, and to sign the Caucus’s 1/11/18 letter urging Trump to recognize, as part of his “National Strategy,” climate change as a national threat. https://insideclimatenews.org/news/16012018/military-climate-change-bipartisan-congress-letter-national-defense-strategy

Gun Control

“Mr. Zeldin has accepted $14,850 from the NRA since his first congressional run, the most of any sitting NY representative, and has earned its A rating as a solidly pro-gun candidate who has reliably supported NRA positions on key votes.” –Editorial, East Hampton Star, 10/05/17

  • Co-sponsored Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act, which compels states with strict concealed carry requirements to allow individuals from states with no or lax permit requirements to carry a concealed weapon. (H.R. 38) Opposed by police commissioners and District Attorneys across the country. (12/6/2017)
  • Voted in favor of H.R. 3354, which among other harmful provisions prohibits federal funding of CDC research on gun violence. (9/14/17)
  • Voted to end federal checks that prevented 167,000+ veterans deemed “mentally incompetent” from owning or buying firearms. H.R.1181 (3/16/2017)
  • Voted to prohibit bans of firearms in airports and other public transportation facilities. Griffith Amendment to H.R.2406 (2/26/2016)
  • Voted to restrict the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms from regulating the sale of ammunition for semi-automatic weapons. H.R.2578 (6/1/2015)

Tax Bill

Although Zeldin touts his vote against the House tax bill (H.R.1), don’t let him fool you.

  • In 2017, 68 House members, including some from NY and NJ, signed a bipartisan letter protesting Mnuchin’s plan to eliminate SALT deductions. ZELDIN DID NOT SIGN THE LETTER. His opposition began only when it looked like his job might be at stake.
  • Zeldin focuses only on SALT and has said little about other damaging provisions including huge tax breaks for corporations and the wealthiest Americans; repeal of the estate tax; elimination of tax deductions for veterans, teachers, and those with student loans; increased taxes on many middle class families.
  • Plus he voted for the budget that paved the way for these tax cuts. That budget included $500 billion in cuts to Medicare and Medicaid and was opposed by every other member of the LI congressional delegation, including Peter King. H.Con.Res. 71 (10/5/2017)

 Health Care

  • Voted for the AHCA, which would result in 14M losing health care and included (among other terrible provisions): gigantic tax cuts for wealthy; huge Medicaid cuts; reinstatement of pre-existing condition exclusions and lifetime and annual caps; and defunded Planned Parenthood H.R.1628 (5/7/17)

Reproductive Rights 

  • Voted to ban abortion at 20 weeks with only two extremely narrow exceptions, directly challenging the Roe v. Wade finding that abortion is legal until fetus is viable outside the womb, generally considered to be about 24 weeks. H.R. 36 (10/7/17). This bill was opposed by the American Congress of Obstetricians and Gynecologists as a serious threat to women’s health and not based on sound science.
  • Voted to defund Planned Parenthood (as part of the AHCA).

Immigration/DACA

  • Voted to require state and local governments to comply with ICE requests to detain undocumented immigrants, including those arrested for nonviolent conduct, until ICE can take custody. Non-complying governments would be blocked from receiving certain DHS and DOJ grants. H.R. 3003 (6/29/17)
  • Voted to make it more difficult for green card holders to obtain ACA subsidies. H.R. 2581 (6/13/17)
  • Supported Trump’s DACA rescission. Although open to debating the issue in Congress, he said, “My priority will always unapologetically remain with fighting for the people following the laws rather than the ones breaking them.” Press Release (9/5/17)

Track Zeldin’s Votes

https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/lee_zeldin/412646.

Special thanks to David Friedman and Marc Rauch, who have made their valuable and comprehensive research available as a “file” on the “Let’s Visit Lee Zeldin” FB page.

 

 

Posted in climate change, Environment, EPA, Guns, Health Care, immigration/deportation, Uncategorized, Women, Zeldin | Tagged | 3 Comments

Zeldin Makes Excuses for Trump

Posted on January 26, 2018 by cdsprings

Published as a letter to the editor in The East Hampton Star, Jan. 25

Despicable World View

East Hampton

January 22, 2018

To the Editor,

When President Trump denigrated Haiti and Africa with his comments, Lee Zeldin tweeted that the president “wasn’t elected for his ability to be politically correct,” and that, “I’m not here to call for the President’s mouth to be washed out with soap.”

Once again, our representative misses the point entirely. It’s not the vulgarity of the comments that is so disturbing (although one hopes eventually we’ll have a president who respects the dignity of the office and acts accordingly), it’s the breathtaking, mind-numbing ignorance of such a despicable worldview.

I look forward to the day when America reclaims its sanity and becomes once more a country that, while not perfect, strives to be generous in spirit, steadfast in its freedoms, and secure in its role as the world’s moral leader.

That day will come only when Trump is voted out of office. In the meantime, let’s send an unmistakable message. In November, vote Lee Zeldin out of office. We deserve a representative who holds the president accountable for his words and actions, not one who makes excuses.

Sincerely,

CAROL DEISTLER

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Zeldin’s attack on the FBI

Posted on January 25, 2018 by D. Posnett MD

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By Perry GERSHON:

An independent justice system is the heart of our democracy. But Congressman Lee Zeldin has recently joined far-right extremists in attacking our Department of Justice and the FBI.

Zeldin is attempting to undermine Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigations into the Trump campaign’s alleged collusion with Russia and obstruction of justice:

In alleging “misconduct” at the Department of Justice and FBI, Zeldin has joined the ranks of far-right conspiracy theorists and is putting partisan politics ahead of justice.

Long Island deserves a member of Congress who will put country ahead of president and party. The concerted right-wing plot by Zeldin and others to sow doubt on Robert Mueller puts our democracy in grave danger.

Posted in DOJ, FBI, Uncategorized, Zeldin | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

How Germany fights bias

Posted on January 25, 2018 by D. Posnett MD

Letter in the NY Times today

Re “German’s Idea to Fight Bias Gains Support” (news article in NYT, Jan. 11):

A rise of anti-Semitism among new immigrants to Germany has prompted a suggestion of having immigrants tour concentration camps. The idea is promising.

A visit to a concentration camp is life-changing. You can read books and see documentaries or movies about the Holocaust, but there is no substitute for seeing the sites of evil.

The proximity of the concentration camps to the civilized world reminds us of the bystanders who ignored or were indifferent to the factories of death.

The concept that viewing Dachau, which is on German soil, is a simplistic way to fight anti-Semitism may be true, but it should still be done.

Hatred is a binary choice, so every person’s mind and heart that are changed brings us closer to a better environment for persecuted minorities.

The purpose of preserving the concentration camps is to remind us of the victims’ message to the world: Never again.

STEVEN A. LUDSIN
EAST HAMPTON, N.Y.

The writer was a member of the President’s Commission on the Holocaust and the original United States Holocaust Memorial Council.

I wonder how the White House would react if it were suggested that immigrants to the United States be required to visit the bridge at Selma?  Or perhaps the holocaust museum in Washington DC.  David Posnett MD

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Out-of-pocket healthcare spending could rise thanks to Lee Zeldin

Posted on January 24, 2018 by D. Posnett MD

Screen Shot 2017-08-16 at 10.28.09 PM

Implementation of the Affordable Care Act (ACA, Obamacare)  was associated with reduced out-of-pocket spending for US medical care, particularly among those with lower incomes, but not with reduced premiums.

That is the conclusion of a new study published in the medical journal JAMA Internal Medicine.

As summed up by Les Masterson on the HealthCare Dive

  • the ACA led to reduced out-of-pocket spending, especially for low-income Americans. That said, many people still feel the burden of high out-of-pocket costs and premium spending.
  • medical expenses continue to “consume a large share of many families’ incomes and compound income inequities.”
  • repealing or reversing gains made by the ACA will “especially harm poor and low-income Americans.” Premiums will likely increase for people in the exchanges if healthier people leave the exchanges.

This affects residents in our Congressional district: NY-01.  Rep. Lee Zeldin has consistently voted to undermine the ACA and has supported very unpopular Trumpcare.  Republicans also putting Medicare and Medicaid in jeopardy via the recently passed tax bill.  Thanks for stealing our money!

 

Read more about the LZ track record on healthcare:

Zeldin’s Deception on Health Care

Zeldin’s Approval of Senate Healthcare Bill Reveals His Lack of Concern for Veterans

http://www.1clickdaily.com/1429473

Zeldin Must Stand Up And Protect Long Island’s Health Care

Is Zeldin Untruthful about Healthcare?

and Zeldin complicit in CHIP used as bargaining chip:

Screen Shot 2018-01-24 at 12.58.55 PM

 

Posted in ACA, AHCA, American Health Care Act, Medicaid, medicare, Tax Reform, trumpcare, Uncategorized, Zeldin | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Women’s March 2018

Posted on January 20, 2018 by maidstonejewelry

Last year I was in Washington DC!  Just one little dot on that picture of the mall, the picture that tells it all about facts versus blowhard fake news. Remember Sean Spicer?

This year I went to Sag Harbor with my friends David and Julia Kaback. Julia is a 22 year old senior at Connecticut College.  She wants to work in marketing for a non-profit and in particular on environmental issues.  She is fired up about politics and Trump!  I introduced her to Bridget Fleming, one of the key note speakers at the event, in front of the windmill at the Wharf.  We need to engage more 22 year olds, specially women.  They are the antidote to racist white males in pickup trucks.

The march was attended by 400+ people by our estimates. It was fun just like last year. Here are some pictures:

SOS: stands for ‘S’ave ‘O’ur ‘S’hore ‘S’ociety ‘S’cience and ‘S’anity (right lower image green sign, created by Julia).

There are 3 video movies which I will post on Facebook.

 

 

Posted in Trump, Uncategorized, Women, Zeldin | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Is Lee Zeldin Really “Good On The Environment”?

Posted on January 19, 2018 by francescarh

A slickly produced mailer from Lee Zeldin appeared in my mailbox this week. It touted our Congressman’s supposed record in “safeguarding our environment.” Mr. Zeldin has been very adept in pulling the wool over voters’ eyes about his actual environmental record. I have often heard from environmentally progressive friends that “Lee Zeldin is at least good on the environment.” Wrong! The League of Conservation Voters has scored him at 8% for 2016 (the most recent scorecard they have produced) and only 11% for his lifetime score. 

On his flyer, Zeldin touts his concern for”access to clean air and clean water.” Really? Then why in 2016 did he block protections for clean water (House Roll Call Vote 468), approving riders that expanded exemptions to the Clean Water Act to allow more dumping of pollutants into waterways and blocking the EPA’s Clean Water rule? (Luckily, the Senate did not vote on the riders, so they didn’t pass.)

And, talking of the EPA, why did Lee Zeldin vote in 2017 for H.R. 1430? This Orwellian-named “HONEST Act” endangers public health by making it very difficult for the EPA to use the best available science. Does he think his East End constituents will benefit from blocking good science about the health effects of pollution?

But Lee Zeldin’s attack on the EPA’s ability to carry out its mission didn’t end there. He also attacked its integrity by voting for H.R. 1431, the “EPA Science Advisory Board Reform Act of 2017.” This horrific act weakens conflict-of-interest protections, thereby enshrining industry shills while barring real scientists from EPA advisory panels. It also allows industry to prolong what is already a very long scientific review process so that important public health and environmental protections get even more delayed.

Now back to Zeldin’s claim of “ensuring access to clean air and clean water.” In 2017, he voted for the “Reducing Regulatory Burdens Act of 2017” (H.R. 953), which ended Clean Water Act safeguards protecting communities from toxic pesticides. Specifically, pesticides now can be more freely discharged directly into water bodies. That vote passed with Lee Zeldin’s help. (It seems like Mr. Zeldin has an antipathy for clean water protections. He also voted in 2017 to undermine environmental reviews on water projects with his “yes” vote on H.R. 1654, which also passed with his help.)

You would think that if Mr. Zeldin really cared about the environment on the East End, he would be on the forefront of Congressional efforts to combat climate change. Wrong! In spite of the fact that new predictions forecast nine or more feet of sea level rise this century — putting our coastal properties at risk of going under water — our Congressman voted in 2017 for HR 2019. That law slashes critical investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency and prevents government from assessing the real risks and costs of climate change. 

Bizarrely, Mr. Zeldin also voted to quash an amendment that would have protected our National Ocean Policy. This means, for example, that it will be much harder for different constituencies like fisherman, conservationists and local communities to have a place at the table when ocean development issues are decided. To put this in current context, if Trump’s just-announced plans to drill for oil and gas offshore from our Atlantic coastline go forward, the ability of ocean communities to weigh in on those frightening plans got weakened by Mr. Zeldin’s vote (the bill passed.) Zeldin makes much fanfare about opposing offshore oil drilling, but in 2017 he cut off his constituents’ power to influence the policy at the knees.

This is just a snapshot of Lee Zeldin’s awful environmental record. (Check out the League of Conservation Voters to learn more.) We need a real environmental defender as our Congressman, not one like Lee Zeldin who talks a good game while stabbing our environment in the back.

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments

Zeldin on drilling: tepid

Posted on January 18, 2018 by D. Posnett MD

Published today in the East Hampton Star as a letter to the editor:

Just Two Sentences

 

Lee Zeldin released the following statement in response to the Trump administration’s proposal to open United States waters to offshore oil drilling: “I support an energy strategy that secures American energy independence and drives down costs. On Long Island, however, our waterways are our way of life, and drilling off of Long Island is unacceptable and counterproductive to the well-being of our communities.”

That something as catastrophic as oil drilling off our beaches merits just two sentences from Mr. Zeldin is deeply troubling. He devotes more time to posting lengthy defenses of Trump when he says something offensive. Suggestion for Mr. Zeldin: Let someone else take on the herculean task of explaining what Trump really meant and spend your time more productively, fighting for the people of the First Congressional District.

We need a representative who is a leader, who champions our interests, and who rallies and sways the opinions of fellow representatives; we don’t need a representative who issues a tepid press release on a critical issue and then fades into the background.

CAROL DEISTLER

 

To LZ:  please get our coast line exempted (just like Florida)!    Next time the WH asks you for a favor, you know how to respond. Right?  D. Posnett

Posted in Environment, Offshore Drilling, Trump, Uncategorized, Zeldin | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Voters exhausted by chaos & hostility of Trump regime

Posted on January 17, 2018 by D. Posnett MD

“There’s honor in compromise and civility.”  Ezra Klein interviewing Joe Trippi, the chief media strategist on the Doug Jones campaign.

The lessons from Doug Jones’ win in Alabama are discussed in this interesting piece on VOX:  “A top Doug Jones staffer explains the Alabama win.”   By Ezra Klein

Trump is creating enough chaos and divisiveness and hostility that Republicans who would never ordinarily vote for a Democrat say, “Okay, well I’ve got all the chaos and hostility I can handle right now. I’ll vote for somebody who wants to try to find common ground and get things done for me, even if they’re a Democrat.”

There is a lesson here for our district: NY CD-1.  It is all about getting those middle of the road voters disgusted by Trump/Zeldin, without losing the energy of the Democratic/Progressive base.

And there is another centrist Dem. , Patty Schachtner, winning in a Rep. district by emphasizing local issues.  As per the WaPo and James Hohmann:

A stunning Democratic victory, Tuesday, in a special election deep in the heart of Trump country suggests a blue tsunami could be forming.

President Trump became the first Republican to carry Wisconsin in a presidential election since Ronald Reagan by running up his score in places like the rural 10th state Senate district, along the Minnesota border.  Trump won there by 17 points in 2016.

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There is an important lesson here for national Democrats: Schachtner is the sort of candidate who can actually defeat GOP incumbents in red congressional districts this fall. She has deep roots in the community, and she is not a fire-breathing liberal.  Her campaign focused not on attacking Trump but fighting the opioid crisis, improving access to health care and bringing good-paying jobs to the region. She didn’t need to talk about the president to benefit from an outpouring of progressive energy and conservative apathy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted in democrats, long island, Politics, Trump, Uncategorized, Zeldin | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment