I just got back from PA: Dauphin county (Harrisburg), where we were assigned to be poll watchers.  The county went D by 8 points.  Yay.  PA is important.

This graph is from Nate Cohn’s article in the NYT and shows that the majority of outstanding votes are likely to be “by mail” votes that are predicted to go heavily to Biden. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/upshot/pennsylvania-election-results-ballots.html.

“If anything, the pre-election estimates suggest that Mr. Biden might be expected to do better, because the areas with remaining absentee votes are ever so slightly more Democratic than the state as a whole.”

Here is the big picture from the Associated Press:


  1. Biden needs 22 electoral votes to reach 270
  2. Trump needs 56 electoral votes to reach 270
  3. Michigan has just been called in the Biden column, so Biden needs 22-16 = 6 electoral votes
  4. Nevada has 6 electoral votes!

With 75% of votes counted in Nevada this is what it looks like:

That is a difference of just 8000 votes.  BUT, the bulk of the ballots left to be counted come from the state’s Democratic stronghold of Clark County (Las Vegas area).  This is according to VOX reports from 5:30pm today

Hold on!  We could have a winner announced tonight.

About D. Posnett MD

Emeritus Prof. of Medicine, Weill Cornell Medical College
This entry was posted in 2020 elections and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

7 Responses to Encouraged

  1. Robert Wick says:

    If he gets Nevada, which is likely, he doesn’t even need Pa.


  2. Robert Wick says:

    oops no I take that back .. he needs more than NV. Sorry


  3. Mary Foster Morgan says:

    Thank you David for all that you do. I had fun texting for Nancy yesterday and the day before. Lots of nice people in District 1. If we focus on mutual interests WE can make positive change!

  4. Janet Boyd says:

    That is a relief – fingers crossed!
    Decency will win!

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