From: Nigel Noble and his DC based lawyer friend
Dear Friends and Family,
This email is a follow up to my correspondence several weeks ago on our efforts to defeat Trump and flip the Senate. You may recall that I am working with a group of politically experienced and knowledgeable people to identify the strongest candidates to support and to encourage registration and voting among young voters. I promised to provide you with ongoing assessments, and this email reflects recent activity and our latest recommendations.
Most Recent Senate Analysis
Based on recent developments, we want to offer some new insights. Every candidate that we identify in this email is worthy of your support. As a group, the Democratic challengers are impressive, honorable, politically savvy, right for their states and are running good campaigns. If you are in a position to contribute to them all – by all means, do so. But for those who are looking for priorities, our group is offering these suggestions.
Our goal in developing these recommendations is to invest in candidates who have the best chance of helping to recapture the Senate. We looked at data on contributions, cash on hand and polls, and we talked to a lot of people involved in the elections.
We are not recommending races where there are Republican incumbents who, emotionally, we would love to ditch, but where the odds just don’t seem to be there. Similarly, we are not recommending “headwind” races where Trump is likely to have too big a lead to be offset by enough voters willing to split their ticket, or races where there is simply not enough information to evaluate.
We now have two categories of races for you to consider, based on our assessment about how much of a difference your contributions could make. Each list includes links to the Democrats’ websites for more information and to make contributions.
Our First Priority Group includes the following races:
- Greenfield (vs. Ernst) in Iowa — https://greenfieldforiowa.com/
- Bullock (vs. Daines) in Montana — https://stevebullock.com/
- Gross (vs. Sullivan) in Alaska — https://dralgrossak.com/
- Cunningham (vs. Tillis) in North Carolina —https://www.calfornc.com/
- Gideon (vs. Collins) in Maine — https://saragideon.com/
- Sen. Peters (vs. James) in Michigan — https://petersformichigan.com/
This group includes our original “Best Buy” races, (Iowa, Montana and Alaska). Elections are less expensive in these states, the candidates are very strong, polls are close and each state has some history of ticket splitting. Republicans have noticed and are in hot pursuit, but all three remain encouraging.
We are adding the very promising races in North Carolinaand Maine which we previously characterized as “Best Bets.” Both races are generally viewed as toss-ups. Although both Democratic candidates appear to have slight leads in the most recent polls, there remains a significant undecided vote in North Carolina and Republicans are likely to go all out to save Collins in Maine.
The sixth race, Democratic incumbent Gary Peters in Michigan, is new to our list. We previously explained that Democrats would need to pick up five seats if Trump wins or four seats if Biden wins to control the Senate. This presumes the loss of only one seat currently held by Democrats (Doug Jones in Alabama is running a strong race, but may be facing insurmountable headwinds.). It now appears that Sen. Peters may be in a tight race. Michigan is a must win for Trump and a top priority for Biden, and the polls have edged closer. The Republican challenger (John E. James) has raised a ton of money and Peters needs more.
Our Second Priority Group includes the following races:
- Kelly (vs. McSally) in Arizona — https://markkelly.com/
- Hickenlooper (vs. Gardner) in Colorado —https://hickenlooper.com/
- Harrison (vs. Graham) in South Carolina —https://jaimeharrison.com/
- Ossoff (vs. Perdue) in Georgia — https://electjon.com/
Recall that the criterion for prioritizing a race is how much of a difference your contributions could make. In the case of Colorado and Arizona (from our original Best Bets list) both races have raised a great deal of money and both candidates currently have good polling results. At the moment, these are the states where we have the best chances of flipping seats.
Two other races, which we previously regarded as third priorities based on the degree of difficulty of winning, have moved into our second priority group — South Carolina and Georgia. Both Jaime Harrison and Jon Ossoff are great candidates and have proven that they are serious contenders. The challenge for both Harrison and Ossoff is overcoming the headwinds for Trump and the power of incumbency. However, both Harrison and Ossoff are polling just about even with the incumbents.
If you have questions about these recommendations, please feel free to contact me.
I am curious as to why Mitch McConnell, perhaps the most egregiously nefarious member of the Senate is not on either priority one or two lists?
I guess it is because they think he is unbeatable? The latest polls have him leading by 15+ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/kentucky/
Very helpful, thanks.