Magic Wand Needed!

If it were possible to wave a magic wand and make all Americans freeze in place for 14 days while sitting six feet apart, epidemiologists say, the whole epidemic would sputter to a halt!

Here is another coronavirus curve (from March 22nd).  The Germans claim it shows flattening of the curve for their country.  I’ not so sure (yellow curve)!  The more dramatic finding is the black curve (USA) which has the steepest incline showing that COVID-19 is spreading most aggressively here in the US than anywhere else.

My friend James, is vacationing in Mexico.  Guess what, he is going to stay there for now! Good decision.

Screen Shot 2020-03-23 at 12.57.01 PM

 

Why is this worrisome? The NYT ran his piece:  “The Virus can be Stopped, but only with Harsh Steps” By

…coronavirus more often infects clusters of family members, friends and work colleagues, said Dr. David L. Heymann,

“You need to identify and stop discrete outbreaks, and then do rigorous contact tracing.”

Advertisement

Continue reading the main story

But doing so takes intelligent, rapidly adaptive work by health officials, and near-total cooperation from the populace.   My thoughts: Right.  Is that going to happen?

Americans must be persuaded to stay home, the experts said, and a system put in place to isolate the infected and care for them outside the home. Travel restrictions should be extended, they said; productions of masks and ventilators must be accelerated, and testing problems must be resolved.

It is not the “American way”.  “The American way is to look for better outcomes through a voluntary system,” said Dr. Luciana Borio, who was director of medical and biodefense preparedness for the National Security Council before it was disbanded in 2018.

Many experts, some of whom are international civil servants, declined to speak on the record for fear of offending the president. But they were united in the opinion that politicians must step aside and let scientists both lead the effort to contain the virus and explain to Americans what must be done.  My thoughts: is that going to happen? No.  Americans distrust science.

The next priority, experts said, is extreme social distancing. If it were possible to wave a magic wand and make all Americans freeze in place for 14 days while sitting six feet apart, epidemiologists say, the whole epidemic would sputter to a halt.

…the police may be needed to enforce stay-at-home orders, as they were in China and Italy.

People in lockdown adapt. In Wuhan, apartment complexes submit group orders for food, medicine, diapers and other essentials. Shipments are assembled at grocery warehouses or government pantries and dropped off. In Italy, trapped neighbors serenade one another!  Watch this Youtube video on life in Wuhan.

It’s an intimidating picture. But the weaker the freeze, the more people die in overburdened hospitals — and the longer it ultimately takes for the economy to restart.

So, here is the Trump response delivered by tweet last night”

“Mr. Trump has become frustrated with Dr. Fauci’s blunt approach at the briefing lectern, which often contradicts things the president has just said, according to two people familiar with the dynamic.”

Screen Shot 2020-03-23 at 2.05.03 PM

Screen Shot 2020-03-23 at 2.02.07 PM

“WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF,” Mr. Trump tweeted in all capital letters shortly before midnight. “AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!”

It seems clear, Donald is taking charge as the ultimate expert for anything.  Some think Dr. Fauci will be sidelined.

Screen Shot 2020-03-23 at 3.03.44 PM

Advertisement

Continue reading the main story

But doing so takes intelligent, rapidly adaptive work by health officials, and near-total cooperation from the populace.

Advertisement

Continue reading the main story

 But doing so takes intelligent, rapidly adaptive work by health officials, and near-total cooperation from the populace.

About D. Posnett MD

Emeritus Prof. of Medicine, Weill Cornell Medical College
This entry was posted in Coronavirus, Health Care, Trump, Uncategorized and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s