Netanyahu in the Golan Heights looking out at Syria and warning Iran not to “test” Israel’s resolve, on Feb. 6, 2018. From his twitter feed.
Scrapping the Iran Nuclear Deal (or JCPOA as it is formally called) is likely to have all sorts of bad side effects. I have collected some thoughts from friends and experts:
- Scrapping JCPOA undercuts the moderate wing within Iran and empowers the hardliners;
- Will likely lead to a return to nuclear enrichment and possibly a military program for nuclear weapons too — if only to strengthen their hand in negotiations
- The U.S. is seen to ally itself with Saudi Arabia and the UAE against Iran, Syria (and Iraq).
- Emboldens Saudi Arabia to step up its attacks on Yemen and Lebanon.
- Further increases the refugee flow.
- Emboldens Netanyahu to do whatever … (Israel has been flying sorties over Syria and attacking different targets in the vicinity of Damascus over the past week, killing Syrians and apparently some Iranian troops as well).
- We will have a realignment with Iran and the Syrians becoming even closer to Russia and possibly giving Russians the option of air bases on Iranian territory for the first time, while the US will become even more closely tied to Saudi Prince Mohamed Bin Salman whose grip on his own country is almost certainly very fragile after he has violently burned all his bridges with those who have real power in the country.
- A subdued Iran would lead to an unfettered Saudi Arabia with an aggressive leader, Mohammed bin Salman. Saudi Arabia has been the most important exporter of radical Wahabi/Salafi fundamentalism around the world
- Then of course there is the question of how Trump’s performance is perceived by Kim Jong Un and how he feels he has to position himself in the upcoming negotiations. “If I were Kim, I would definitely not give up nuclear weapons — it really is the only significant card that he holds.”
- Sanctions won’t work any longer (e.g. when not everyone is on board), and it was the sanctions that brought Iran to the negotiating table.
It looks very much like a strategy to have an excuse to bomb…or “regime change”, meaning war.
A bipartisan group of more than 100 US national security experts — including nearly 50 retired military officers and more than 30 former ambassadors –had urged President Donald Trump to remain in the Iran nuclear deal.
On the other side we have John Bolton, Trump’s new National Secrutiy Advisor, who repeatedly advocated regime change in Teheran. Bolton’s hawkish views on Iran mirror those of Israel, Saudi Arabia and one of his key ideological partners, the Mujahideen-e Khalq (MEK). It is also a victory for Netanyahu who has viewed Iran as the arch enemy for the past 25 years! Recently Israel has been bombing missile stock piles in Syria, apparently from Iran and meant for Syria and for Hezbolah. CBC news reports:
“The worry for Israel is that Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement could embolden Tehran to retaliate against Israel for a number of recent airstrikes in Syria, believed to be carried out by Israeli warplanes.
The most recent incident unfolded about an hour after Trump spoke in Washington, when explosions were reported near Damascus. Syrian state media reported that eight Iranians were among the 15 killed in the attack.
This is yet another in a string of bombings that are thought to be part of the shadow war Israel is engaged in with the Iranians, who have built up their military muscle — including stockpiling surface-to-surface missiles — inside Syria. “
Our reperesentative, Lee Zeldin, is an unabashed cheer leader for Trump and John Bolton. He also cheers on the Israeli war mongers and Netanyahu. And by-the-way, that same John Bolton led a superPAC that employed Cambridge Analytica ! Yes, those are the people that got your FB info and sold it to the Trump campaign. Sound like a swamp?