Republicans are leaving the U.S. House at the highest rate in a decade. Nathaniel Rakich, a reporter with 538, has analyzed the Republican exodus and finds there are 2 groups: those that are moderate Republicans and belong to the so called “Tuesday group”, and those that are being forced out of subcommittee chair positions because of term limits. Based on these 2 criteria they have created a list of congressmen most likely to join the retiree list. Another indicator is the total amount of money raised for the 2018 race: a congress person who is contemplating retirement will not actively be raising funds.
The list of likely retirements coming in 2018 was summed up in a table (see below). Chris Collins from NY-27 makes the list. But congressman Peter King from Long Island gets a special note:
“Maybe the likeliest retirement prospect is New York’s Peter King, who is both a Tuesday Group member and the term-limited chair of the Homeland Security Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence. He’s also raised a pitiful $294,848 and has one of the lowest Trump scores in the Republican caucus.”